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On Yugoslavia, Observations from November, 1991 to August, 1992

by Valentine Smith, February 2,1993

From the summer of 1990 to the present time roughly two years later,
the state of Yugoslavia began to become unglued as a federation of
republics. In early July of that year, Slovenia declared the
sovereignty of its laws over the laws of Yugoslavia, being the first
of the six republics to break away from the federation, and the only
one to do so relatively peacably. Two days after that, Serbia
dissolved the government and parliament of the autonomous province of
Kosovo, one of two in the state (the other being Vojvodina). In
August, the Serbian minority in Croatia held a referendum, bitterly
opposed by the Croatian government, to decide on autonomy within
Croatia. Slovenia declared customs duties on Serbian goods in late
October, in effect breaking down the internal exchange process. 
In 1991, Slovenia and Croatia declared independence from Belgrade,
and Serbian "irregulars," and forces of the Serb-dominated Yugoslav
army and air force attacked Croatia, destroying most of the city of
Vukovar, heavily damaging the Adriatic port city of Dubrovnik, plus
causing some damage to Zagreb and Ljubljana. The fighting at times
was ferocious, a large number of people were killed, more became the
first of now over 1.5 million refugees, and a fair numbr of cities
were damaged or destroyed. Next was the turn of Bosnia-Hercegovina,
which declared independence in February, 1992, and the fighting
between the republic and the republics of Serbia and Montenegro began
almost immediately. Macedonia also declared independence in the
spring of 1992, but unlike the other three republics, was not
recognized as an independent state by the EC, CSCE, and UN as the
first three were because of Greek objections over the use of the name
"Macedonia."
At this time, a month into the fall of 1992, the fighting continues
in Bosnia, with the city of Sarajevo holding out against a
concentrated Serbian push to capture the city, and assimilate as much
of Bosnia as they can into a "new Yugoslavia," (currently Serbia and
Montenegro, plus the captive "autonomous regions" of Kosovo and
Vojvodina) which as yet has not gained any recognition in the
international community. 70% of Bosnia is in Serbian hands, with all
three communities of the state (Muslim, Croat, and Serb) accused of
blood-letting beyond any seen in Europe since World War II, and
ethno-centrism to the point of ominous policies like "ethnic
purification" and "concentration camps." This has led to a large
number of yet unreported-in-full slaughters, and the largest European
refugee problem since the last World War. Other states in the region
began closing their borders as July began, a policy that has
continued throughout the rest of summer and into fall in varying
degrees. All of Bosnia's immediate neighbors, including Croatia, are
saturated with refugees from Bosnia.
This account begins in November of last year, as the fighting in
Croatia still continued, Bosnia was only discussing breaking away
from Belgrade, and continues into the latter part of July, 1992, as
still another ceasefire collapsed (over twenty-five have so far
failed), and Sarajevo airport is one of the few places in all Bosnia
under "neutral" control, with 1600 UN "peacekeepers" maintaining a
tenuous thread of food and medical aid to the embattled city, but not
able to get food or any aid to the countryside at all. As the account
opens, on my 600th message to my electronic mail bulletin board,
Vukovar is being pounded to bits by Serbian shelling. 
The messages are parts of a larger structure of material written from
17 November, 1991 to 5 August, 1992, and include only excerpts
relating to the former republics of Yugoslavia, and specific or
general conclusions the writer made about the situation, or as it
related to Europe as a whole. This account stops 150 messages after
the start, spanning a little over nine months of commentaries on just
this theme.
In the two months after the messages in this paper stop, the
destruction of Sarejevo has continued, (including the cutting off of
natural gas, electricity and water to the beseiged city) the "ethnic
cleansing" in north Bosnia has continued, the refugee situation is
critical, food deliveries by air or truck are erratic or not
occurring, and in the month of October, Croat and Muslim, once allied
against the Serbs, have begun to fight each other. 
17-NOV-1991 13:18:18.68
Croatia- 
Vukovar looks devastated in the fighting of the past week, shelling
continues at Dubrovnik, more fires and damage is occurring at Osijek,
so the ceasefire last was a bit on the ephemeral side. It did permit
"Slavakia," a ferry of some kind, to ponderously (took 36 hours for
the ship to get where it was going - somewhere else in "Yugoslavia" -
a seeming fictional place these days, despite the efforts of the
Serbs) get away from 4000 refugees from Dubrovnik, almost all
wounded people, women and children. Osijek looks like the scenes in
_The Wasteland, and other stark depictions.  (1)
19-NOV-1991 23:02:46.72
Croatia-
Vukovar fell to the Serb-dominated Federal army last night or early
a.m. this morning. The place looks awful. Osijek and Vukovar are both
extremely heavily damaged, as are some thirty other towns and
villages in eastern Croatia. Dubrovnik remains under seige.
The tragedy of Croatia seems to never end, only getting worse. The
Serbs will have a lot to answer for at some point in the near future.
(2)
22-NOV-1991 19:15:32.35
                          
Croatia-
Osijek has become the new focus of the Federal army, and yesterday
"thousands of shells" reportedly poured in on this regional capitol
in eastern Croatia. Yesterday, many charges were leveled by both Serb
and Croat about the vast numbers of dead people so graphically
displayed on major network and cable news programs last night and
this morning. The Serbs blamed the so-called Ustashe (fascist police
and military types as existed in WWII that killed thousands of Serbs
at that time), while the Croats blamed the Communist "killers" of the
Serbian army. The truth may never be told. 
Both sides have drawn battle lines that leave little room for
compromise. Serbia and Croatia will both say that they would agree to
a ceasefire, and both have asked the UN for UN peacekeeping forces in
the region. Croatia wants the peacekeeping border lines to exist
where they were in June, while the Serbs want the lines drawn where
the army has gotten to in Croatia, with roughly a third of the
"state" that existed on 25 June now under Serbian control, which the
Croatians see as an anathemic solution. Vance and other UN people
have said until an actual, working ceasefire occurs, the chances of a
peacekeeping force being brought in are slim.
Tudjman allegedly arrested an opposition leader in Croatia today, for
reasons not very clear to me by the report's end. I think it was over
this person's ideas about how peace with the Serbs can be achieved. I
suspect that nobody in this mess will behave in a "democratic"
manner, but such high-handedness is always deplorable to see.
The debacle that Yugoslavia represents is a tragedy compounded by the
bullheadedness of ALL sides, and there will be no winners, only the
dead. (3)
26-NOV-1991 01:23:38.17
Comments-
The bitter fighting in Croatia, while Bosnia-Hercegovina, Macedonia
and Slovenia all try to break loose from "old" Yugoslavia, is the
most visible problem, but not the only one. 
There is Hungary muttering at Romania for the treatment (harsh) of
the Hungarian minority by the Romanian majority. Slovakia appears to
want to break loose from Czecho-Slovakia. The Gypsies struggle in
Hungary, Germany and elsewhere in Europe just to exist, it would
appear. There is rising anti-foreigner manifestations in France, the
UK, Spain, Germany and Italy in the past twelve months, and to a
lesser degree in Poland, Hungary and Bulgaria. As the Washington Post
Weekly put it this past week in their cover article "The Eruption of
Eastern Europe," and I quote, ""Freed at last from Communist tyranny,
the peoples of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are resuming their
historic quarrels." Twice this century, these "historic quarrels"
have led to "world wars."
As a 14th ceasefire vaguely holds in Croatia (Osijek the apparent
exception, as the city was bombarded, - "pounded," NPR reported
today), this situation perhaps represents in microcosm what may occur
in what might have been called the USS, but which appears closer to
disintegration daily. Brings up an interesting question (I think),
what will happen to the USSR seat on the UN Security Council when the
USS(R) ceases to exist? I think only the most optimistic can believe
that the union is going to hold. I wish I could say I thought that
possible. 
I am for self-determination, but not to see every 50 square miles
declare itself a nation. That kind of chaos will be highly
destabilizing, as Gorbachev bluntly warned today. 
But rest assured, by next summer, the map of this area of the world
will look totally different, and there will be several "nations," (I
use that word loosely, for now) where there was once one. History is
being made, most sorrowfully it will not be done cleanly. (4)
30-NOV-1991 00:12:59.30
>Don't get me wrong, I am certainly in favour of a Swedish recognition
>of Ukraine. But, if Sweden went ahead and recognized Ukraine on
>Monday, I would definitely ask: why Ukraine, why not Georgia and
>Moldova who are at least at equally advanced in the independence
>efforts? And why not the wanna-be country which really has everything
>you could ask of an independent state: control of its territory, own
>armed forces, own currency? Why not Slovenia?
>Erland Sommarskog - ENEA Data, Stockholm - sommar@enea.se
Again, I sense a bias and/or a myopia here. The only reason Croatia
doesn't have control over THEIR territory is, as I said in early
July, the criminal and illegal (by what I understand about
sovereignty) invasion of their territory by the Serbian-dominated
Federal army. They do have their own army, ragtag as it is, and they
would have their own currency if they weren't fighting for their
lives. I say, as I've said before, and now the EC, and Chancellor
Kohl, apparently are saying or will say, (Kohl did say yesterday)
that BOTH Slovenia and Croatia should be recognized. I agree Georgia
ought to also be recognized IF the Ukraine is. I think Moldavia
should have a referndum about independence/union with Romania and
about what to do about the Russian and Turkish enclaves within that
have declared independence from the republic! THEN perhaps
recognition could be considerd.
What's sauce for the goose cannot, to my self-determination thinking
mind, ONLY be sauce for the goose. Consistancy has to overtake
cold-blooded pragmatism and opportunism. 
But, separately, both Slovenia and Croatia should be recognized,
preferably by Europe first, and if Bosnia-Hercegovina and Macedonia
also end up seeking to be independent, let them. The Serbs should NOT
be allowed to have their way by force.  (5)
1-DEC-1991 01:56:59.61
Croatia -
As Cyrus Vance arrived in Belgrade for the latest peace talks, it was
clear that the 14th ceasefire had collapsed. There were graphic
pictures of dead folk laying in the streets of Osijek, and heavy
fighting (or at least shelling) in Vinkovci, near Osijek. (6)
                                          
6-DEC-1991 02:18:28.31 
Comments-
Anarchy in Croatia has seen the destruction of many Croatian cities -
that situation, as the 14th ceasefire breaks down and in Stepe
Mesich's resignation as Federal President, declaring Yugoslavia "was
no more," threatens other neighbors and also menace to the point of
causing danger and damage to them (so far Hungary and Austria). So, I
am not confident that "anarchic conditions" would necessarily work in
the ex-SU republics any more than in former Yugoslavia. (7)
8-DEC-1991 02:00:57.27
Croatia-
It would appear that the Vance-negotiated peace fire has gone the way
of its thirteen predecessors, as fighting, fires and shell-firing
occurred all across Croatia from Osijek to Dubrovnik. I do not know
the "right" of all the sides, but the destruction of almost 1000 year
old buildings for possibly spurious political goals is the height of
social and political crime, and the killing of over 7000 people
(highest number I've seen so far) is the epitome of what we tried all
those German fellows for at Nuremberg in 1946. The top guys in the
Serbian army (and perhaps top Croatian commanders) should perhaps
face such a tribunal, assembled at the behest and direction of the UN
Security Council. What is happening in the former Yugoslavia could be
stopped. It is said cynically here at the grass roots that the reason
UN troops are not at Osijek as a dividing force between Serbia and
Croatia is because no oil is at stake, only medieval buildings and
frightened people. The Serbian army allegedly "apologized" for
shelling Dubrovnik today, and claimed that there would be an
investigation.
                           
It is so hard to explain to people what is being perceived in this
writer's head and heart as all this occurs. Gorbachev warns of
"catastrophe" and "war" while his neighbors in former Yugoslavia
pound each other over issues similar to some of those expressed by
some of the 100 and some ethnic groups of the XSU. 
But cooperation HAS to come into the equation somewhere, both in the
former SU and in ex-Yugoslavia. If not, the "what else could happen"
scenario described as Gorbachev's "crying wolf" will conjure real
demons like civil war and widespread death due to hunger, starvation
and weather conditions. (8)
8-DEC-1991 22:06:17.24
Croatia & Slovenia-
Our papers are saying that Kohl has agreed to recognize these two
breakaway Yugoslav republics by Christmas, thereby creating an
alleged rift between Germany and the US. France, Britain and the US
favor recognition as part of a greater peace settlemnt, while Bonn
reportedly favors using recognition as a way to pressure Belgrade
into a settlement.
It would appear that the world we have seen as static and basically
unchanging (save in the Third World!) is now coming unglued and
reshaping itself. How will that occur appears everyone's greatest
concern. It would appear clear that the changes are not through
happening yet, nor is anyone sure what to do in reaction to the
changes that ARE erupting, now almost on a daily basis. (9)
10-DEC-1991 09:12:11.05
Croatia-
Tank firing was occurring at Osijek this morning, but there is
relative quiet over Croatia today. Yugoslav troops are reportedly
evacuating bases in north Croatia, and the federal navy has been
reported as having lifted their siege of Dubrovnik. 
                                                              
I empathize with those people in Yugoslavia and the ex-USSR who are
already wistfully saying that they wish this disintegration were not
occurring because of the numbers of new entities the world will have
to deal with and the number of thorny questions and decisions that
will have to be reached because of that multiplicity of new states
birthed by the death of empire. However, it IS happening, the
potential nightmare will NOT disappear by wishing it so. (10)
11-DEC-1991 23:54:32.06
Though there is some stabilization behavior going on in Yugoslavia,
the region appears in deep flux from Berlin and Zagreb east to the
Pacific Ocean. All the countries in this region are struggling,
especially "old Yugoslavia," and the ex-XSU is coming apart before
our very eyes with amazing rapidity. (11)
17-DEC-1991 19:58:27.85
                         
Croatia and Slovenia-
The EC has agreed, with angry reaction from Serbia, to recognize
Croatia and Slovenia as sovereign nations by or on 15 January, 1992.
That may provoke the departure of Macedonia and Bosnia-Hercegovina
from the dead carcass that was once the state of Yugoslavia (only
Belgrade seems unable to see this truth, sadly for the men of the
various armies in the field). Fighting continues in Croatia, with
seven dead at Osijek, and the town of Kraskovic recaptured by the
Serbs today.  (12)
19-DEC-1991 01:24:57.32
Croatia-
An UN observer team of 21 arrived in Belgrade today, trying to find a
way to put UN peace-keeping forces in the war-torn republic. Fighting
continues, with pictures today of Croat soldiers in both Osijek and
Sisak looking very John Wayne-like. Shelling continues, the Serb-led
Federal army is determined to keep up the fighting, for reasons
rather murky, while the Croats, whose reasons may be more clear, and
whose behavior just as mercurial and unreadable, continue resisting.
Sisak has a sixth of the populace it had this past spring. Many
Croatian towns in eastern Croatia are similarly depleted. (13)
21-DEC-1991 15:07:37.06
ex-Yugoslavia-
The Premier of the dying Yugoslav state resigned yesterday. It seems
clear that what IS happening is that the constituent parts of the old
Yugoslav state are battling it out for who will have what in a
post-Yugoslav Balkanized situation of several nations. If Germany and
the EC recognize Croatia and Slovenia on the timetable that has been
suggested, at least the violation of their sovereignty might become
the first big issue for ALL of Europe to grapple with in the New
Year. There was reported celebrating in Zagreb at the news that
Germany had announced their recognition of Croatia, but that will not
actually take effect until 15 January, when the EC as a whole body's
recognition takes effect. (14)
28-DEC-1991 22:13:54.91
Croatia-
Heavy fighting at Osijek and Karlovac continues, while Zagreb went
on air alert and blackout for an hour today as fighting went on in
the villages near the city. 
Serbia-
The past two days have seen the Serbian-dominated Yugoslav Presidency
reportedly announce a "new Yugoslavia" would be formed soon,
dominated of course by Serbia. The "new state" would be "more compact
and smaller" and would in include at the least Serbia, Montenegro,
Kosovo, and Vojvodina, plus the Serbian areas created as Serbian
"satrapies" in Croatia after their seizure by force. The UN is
holding off on peace-keeping forces in the region as it would appear
the Serbian side, predominantly but probably not alone, have no real
desire for anything less than total defeat of the their perceived
enemies, the Croats. It would appear that in this situation, too,
that pig-headed nationalism and fifty year old quarrels have more
hold than a reasonable future for all sides. The UN envoy, Vance,
said yesterday, ruefully, "Things are not going very well in the
Balkans." (15)
                           
29-DEC-1991 21:15:56.77
Croatia-
Air raid sirens cried out in 28 Croatian cities today, according to
the news this evening. Fighting appeared most ferocious around
Karlovac yesterday, which one analyst said this evening that if it it
were captured by the assaulting Serbs that they would then control
one half of Croatia. The Serbs would also reportedly be able to
solidify their rump republic of Kyrenia, using Karlovac as the
capital under duress, as apparently most of the Croats who lived
there have fled, only an unknown mumber of fighters are left.
Artillery fire reportedly killed 10 in Karlovac over the weekend, and
was also apparently re-occurring today. The Federal air force is
conducting air bombardments at both Karlovac and Osijek, with no
reports on Dubrovnik, and with Zagreb as yet unattacked.
The tragedy of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave continues, with more
unyielding people on both sides. Ditto for the incredibly bitter
struggle in Croatia. No compromise, and no quarter. Fools! There is
enough room and territory for every group that wants a place to be to
have that place. The past MUST be stepped away from, as hard as one
knows that will be. But, death and pride go before all that
reasonableness. On the EC list last week, I saw my "silly" (what it
was referred to at the time as) idea about a global re-ordering
conference reappear in terms of just Europe. 
Fine! But, all these aspirations, be they Croatian, Serbian,
Macedonian, Bosnian, Georgian, Azeri, Armenian, Russian, Turkic,
Moldavan, Romanian, Hungarian or Basque, need satisfaction IN A
REASONABLE MANNER FOR ALL PARTIES CONCERNED. This CAN BE DONE!!!! Why
peace and harmony are not occurring is no mystery - pride, ambition,
nationalism, stubborness and bullheadedness are a good chunk of the
reasons that equitable solutions are not being reached. Compromise IS
hard, but it can be done, needs to occur in all these situations.
Will reason have a voice at the table? Will folks ever be willing to
come to the table? 
The year ends with many loose ends, many disconnected people, many
jumbled agendas. Perhaps 1992 will be better, but the signs are not
particularly positive. (16)
2-JAN-1992 23:29:07.21
Croatia-
Allegedly, a 15th "permanent" ceasefire is to go into effect 3
January at 1800 hours local time. This may presage Serbian/Yugoslav
troop withdrawals, and perhaps the coming of UN peacekeeping troops. 
Perhaps this ceasefire in Croatia will actually hold, and some
semblance of peace for now will come to this war-torn place. (17)
4-JAN-1992 23:08:45.50
Croatia-
Sporadic violations of the 15th ceasefire have been reported, but
most soldiers and tanks pictured by news crews had weapon muzzles
wrapped in plastic today to signify that they were not being used. If
the truce can hold for a "period of time" (unspecifid) then UN
peacekeeping forces might be moved into the area relatively soon.
This result does remain to be seen, however. (18)
6-JAN-1992 17:15:44.06
Croatia-
The truce of 3 January is apparently holding. The new Secretary
General of the UN indicated today that UN observers are meeting with
EC observers and it may be "soon" that UN peace-keeping forces will
go to the area.  (19)
8-JAN-1992 01:55:24.66
Croatia-
5 EC observers, four Italians and a French officer, were killed 
yesterday when a Yugoslav warplane shot it down, and forced a second
copter to land in nearby Hungary. The Federal Air Force may be
"reprimanded" for this incident, its head allegedly placed under
house arrest, while the pilot was reported as "acting on his own" by
NPR in the a.m. yesterday.
McNeil/Lehrer reported last night that 10,000 people have died in the
six months of fighting, and that now 500,000 "Yugoslavians" are
homeless.  (20)
9-JAN-1992 02:34:32.90
Croatia-
The UN plans to send 50 observers to the area by the weekend, while
the EC suspended its observing until their people's safety could be
better guaranteed by "Yugoslavian" troops. I think the Air Force
chief resigned today, will report further on this later.  (21)
12-JAN-1992 01:29:33.14
Croatia-
It was reported this morning that the EC rejected the Yugoslav
explanation that the pilot that shot down the copter with five EC
observers who were killed "acted without approval." Other sources
allegedly indicate that such approval was given, according to the EC,
and their copters and planes will stay grounded at this time.
Macedonia-
Ethnic Albanians in this former Yugoslav republic (which voted for
independence overwhelmingly this past fall) want out. The Macedonian
government reportedly is calling any such efforts "illegal." (I'm
amazed that Serbia has not any more trouble in Kosovo than they've
had, considering how preoccupied with Croatia Serbia is). This report
probably portends the beginning of a nasty ethnic struggle in
Macedonia too, just what the torn corpse of Yugoslavia needs!  (22)
15-JAN-1992 00:22:49.27
Croatia- 
50 UN observers arrived in Croatia primarily today to see if the 12
day ceasefire is holding, which may presage 10,000 UN peacekeepers
coming here. The Serbs muttered heavily about the Vatican recognition
yesterday of both Croatia and Slovenia, warning that such might be a
provocation. They are probably right.
I'll close by saying that I believe this first year of change just
past across eastern Europe is only the beginning of a fairly long
period of sometimes turbulent upheaval, sometimes deceptively
peaceful progress. It will not be easy for the changes WE think are
necessary to occur. Somehow, the world, and each of us, needs to see
as many points of view about all this as possible, and stayed
informed! No point of view will be the "correct one," all of us can
see elements of truth and falseness in the changes and leaders that
are emerging.  As someone said to me yesterday, "There's always a
quid pro quo somewhere in the process." Tradeoffs and compromises
will form the new states, and their relationships, let us hope as
reasonably as possible. (23)
16-JAN-1992 10:13:31.19
Croatia-
Both this troubled republic, and the quieter Slovenia, became
officially recognized by the EC yesterday, thereby effectively
dissolving Yugoslavia. Wild celebrations occurred all over Croatia.
President Tudjman assured that the Serbian minority's rights would be
respected. Serbia angrily demounced the recognition, which now has
some 16-25 nations recognizing the two republics, and stated that
they believe the country is intact, and that all these recognitions
are "violations of Yugoslavia's sovereignty." The Vatican had
recognized the two republics the day before, which also had drawn
Serbia's public ire to the point of denunciations for such a
decision. The ceasefire is still loosely holding, though Dubrovnik
was shelled yesterday, and 3 Croat militiamen were killed by a
presumed Serbian sniper during the day. 
Macedonia-
This republic was recognized yesterday by Bulgaria. The Greeks
immediately objected. They say that a area in north Greece is the
"true" Macedonia, and that "Macedonia" ought to call itself something
else. So far, no reaction from Macedonia. This area and Kosovo are
reported real probabilities for "federal" intervention/warfare now
that Slovenia and Croatia have been recognized by the EC. This
morning, it was reported troops are "massing" in this republic that
desires independence, voted for and declared.
The map keeps changing, and will keep up those changes for some time
to come. Aspirations worldwide for autonomy have sprung again into
life as Croatia-Macedonia-Serbia (and whoever else!) battle over the
states that will emerge from the ashes of Yugoslavia, and as
republics like Ukraine and Russia struggle to define the nature of
their relationship. Places like Georgia serve up again the
difficulties of translating democracy to places and people who really
only have the vaguest understanding of its meaning - the gun is still
the problem-solver. Bulgaria, still barely emerging from the hand of
Communism itself, recognizing an area that they once had great
involvement in serves two purposes - to further agitate and weaken
the Serbian government, and to form an alliance with a potentially
more progressive neighbor with whom a trade relationship may be
established. There may also be a hidden hostility problem with Greece
that Bulgaria is acting on too. This is a time of great ferment, and
that upheaval has a long course yet to run, it seems strongly safe to
assume. But who knows? The world COULD get reasonable (but one
wouldn't count on that rapidly occurring).  (24)
                                                             
25-JAN-1992 01:26:02.91
Croatia-
The Croatian Prime Minister today called for 2000 UN peacekeeping
forces to be in place in ten days. The Serbian enclaves in Croatia
vow to fight if they appear, and it appears that some sporadic
fighting and air sorties is still occurring.  (25)
29-JAN-1992 00:24:12.91
Croatia-
The UN mediator on the ground in Croatia, Merritt Goulding, is to
certify to the Secretary General that "basically" the ceasefire is
holding, and that it would be permissible and desirable to bring in
UN peace-keeping forces. A catch, however. Neither the Serbian
enclaval leaders in Croatia, or some members of the Croatian
government, now want the troops, though for different reasons. The
Serbs do not wish to disarm nor let the Federal army leave, Zagreb's
opposition is completely obscure at this juncture.
The mess in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Croatia, defies the wisdom of
Solomon to solve, I fear. (And if there were a modern day Solomon,
SOMEBODY would object to WHATEVER decision was made!)
Nothing is as it seems, and though I may be "dreary" in my outlook,
as yet no ray of relief has yet appeared to allay the pessimism all
these actions sometimes engenders. Some more change, and definitely
more cooperation, has GOT to occur, or all hell is going to break
loose before a very startled world patting itself on the back because
the Cold War is over. Now the spectre of civil war looms, a much more
virulent situation! (26)
30-JAN-1992 22:42:57.87
CSCE -
CSCE membership now rises to 48, and spans from Vladivistok to the
western edge of Ireland, from the northern wastes of Sweden and
Russia to the northern edge of the Mediterranean. All of Europe and
the "Asian" nations of the ex-SU are now part of this body. It has no
cumbersome bureaucracy, and is still pretty flexible. No one clearly
sees the organization's future role, though this commentator and
others have suggested a mediatory role where all parties can agree to
peaceful negotiation. Slovenia and Croatia's membership was rejected
by the gutted "state of Yugoslavia." (This points out the one glaring
weakness of CSCE, its inability to accept or recognize political
realities in a "timely manner.") (27)
1-FEB-1992 00:31:15.25
Croatia-
Federal leaders, reportedly including the Serbian President
Milosevic, apparently unsuccessfully pleaded with Serbian enclaval
leaders to allow UN Blue Beret peacekeepers into eastern Croatia,
where most of the enclaves have banded together as Kryenia. The
Enclave leaders want no peacekeepers or disarming. 
                       
The UN Security Council met for show today, and heard a couple of
highly contrasting views, that of Yeltsin and Li Peng. CSCE stopped
meeting, and is now a bigger organization. Tibet's fate is sad, as is
the apparent inability for the UN to do anything about Croatia and
Slovenia like they had done over Kuwait. CSCE continues to intrigue
this observer as it tries out new roles. The future is murky, and
much the major powers do is disappointing, but there is SOME effort
to correct excesses. However, they ought to join the 20th century, as
should also the other "violators of human rights" the State
Department went after besides China; Egypt, Iraq and Myamar (formerly
Burma). There is no excuse for that kind of tyranny today.  (28)
2-FEB-1992 19:33:05.52
Croatia-
It was reported this afternoon that one Serrbian enclaval group
holding much of southeast Croatia allegedly agreed to UN
peacekeepers. However, most of the other "Serbian rebel" leaders
still are opposed to UN forces in the area. (29)
4-FEB-1992 00:59:01.67
Croatia-
Serbian leaders of the self-styled republic of Kryenia busily denied
today that they had in any way agreed to allow UN peacekeepers in the
territory of Croatia that they control. They WERE willing to
speculate on peacekeepers on the borders, and no disarming of their
fighters, but that's all. (30)
8-FEB-1992 02:30:50.59
Croatia-
The self-styled President of Kryenia refuses still to sign onto
the UN troop deployment. Interviewed this morning, he stated baldly
that it is "an insult" to call the region "part of Croatia," when it
is Serbian-held, and those Serbs by "self-determination" have decided
to be independent. Basically, the guy was giving the blowoff to
Belgrade, Zagreb AND the UN - Kryenia is, was retaken from the "evil"
Croats, and that's that, according to this fellow (Babarsh, Babash,
something like that). The Balkanization continues.
It would appear that despite the debate of the "mighty" UN Security
Council that the Serbs in Croatia continue to take the stand that
they can and will do as they please towards the Croats. The
fragmentation of ex-Yugoslavia continues (one thinks the CSCE should
recognize at least Slovenia, and see what Belgrade does).  (31)
14-FEB-1992 02:05:36.98
Croatia-
The UN Secretary General is recommending to the Security Council
(which convenes next week) that 13,000 UN peacekeepers (one of the
largest such forces in UN history) be deployed in three contested
areas of Croatia. The Federal army allegedly promises to keep Milan
Babash, self-styled President of Kryenia, "under control," whatever
that means (according to a report on NPR's "Morning Edition"
yesterday). The peacekeeping force will further strain the UN
peacekeeper's budget at a cost of $400 million per year, at a time
when most members are in arrears in ALL of their UN financial
obligations.  (32)
15-FEB-1992 15:29:41.98
Croatia-
Butrous-Gahli, the UN Secretary General, made it clear that 13,000
peacekeepers from 31 countries will be deployed here in Croatia,
probably within the next three weeks, despite Babash of Kryenia's
objections. This will be the largest UN peacekeeping force ever put
into the field. (33)
18-FEB-1992 01:25:30.85
	
Comments on democracy and governance-
                                              
In recent days on the nets, there has been a rising-in-acrimony
discussion about Russia, Ukraine and ex-Yugoslavia's relations that
dovetails right into other facets of the discussion there and
elsewhere - constitutional democracy and separate courses versus
"unified" courses. I agree with some people's feelings that this all
joins together philosophically around the "eternal vigilance"
principles of democratic government, of which has been cited to me
tolerance, open debate and "clean politics" as keystones of. 
                                              
Elsewhere, the picture grows murkier. 
"Democracy" to me, at this juncture in the post-Soviet period, is a
path with many nuances. In Azerbaijan's elections that were weighted
in favor of the incumbent "President," the fact that another
candidate was on the ballot was considered "democratic." Ukranians
may face a demand by Russians for a "self-determination vote" in the
Crimea. The Russians have declared such votes in Chechen-Ingush and
Tatarstan "illegal," (yet do not dare move against them to suppress
such activities without setting off the messiest of situations!) and
we've seen that CSCE is still catering to the defunct Belgrade regime
on the issue of Slovenia and Croatia's recognition, despite the EC
recognitions, and others from around the globe (though notably NOT
that paragon of democratic aspiration - the United States  ... this
place is a wonderful country, but we sure do some contradictory
things!). So, self-determination can mean nothing, or little,
depending on whose ox is being gored, whether we're talking about
Russia, Israel, the Kurds of Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Russia, Angola or
Chile, where Pinochet has now been stylish to pose as a possible
model for what might emerge in Russia, ex-Yugoslavia and other "CIS
states."
Yet, somehow, it seems to me, the aspirations of major ethnic
sub-divisions of these countries are going to be hard to ignore. Some
are already leaping out, such as the Turkish and Russian minorities
in Moldava, and the large Russian and Polish minorities of Ukraine.
"Open debate," it has been said, but not that if one got 80% of the
vote in a popular election, one could act undemocratically as
Gamsakhurdia has been accused of. It seems that a "coup mentality" is
rampant in the ex-USSR states, and that democratic decision-making is
definitely on the wane, for now. I think the pressure for that kind
of "democratic" behavior politically will stay high, perhaps
unrequited, though so will the suppressive efforts of those still in
power - many of which were in power before, but in different guises.
We in the net community are in a remarkable position to discuss
constructive ideas with folks who are on the ground, working on
democratic foundations for nations who have only scanty ideas about
what "constitutional democracy" means. It sems sad to see
nationalism, and hatreds formed in other times, govern a dialogue as
critical as the forms of government of the future for the "CIS
states." We must be able to have rational discussion, and perhaps
actually aid in constructing a more cooperative "global democracy" in
our learning.  (34)
22-FEB-1992 00:56:42.56
Croatia - 
The UN Security Council approved the reported $633 million budget for
the UN peace-keeping force of 14,000 to Croatia - to disarm, provide
a buffer in three Croatian areas, and keep the fighting at a minimum.
There was shelling in Croatia today. The Security Council does not
want to pay that much, so not necessarily all these troops authorized
will necessarily be deployed. The US is to bear about 1/3 of the
total cost - why us, I'm not sure, but that's the current plan. (35)
27-FEB-1992 21:52:59.01
Serbia -
President Milosevic declared the civil war "over," saying that he
believed "conditions n exist for a peaceful solution" to thje
differences between Croat and Serb. The President also reportedly
welcomed the coming of UN peacekeeping forces. Meanwhile, artillery
fire directed at Croatia by "Serbian forces" renewed itself
yesterday. 
Bosnia-Hercegovina-
This weekend, this "republic" will vote on independence from the what
seems to be already defunct Yugoslavia. Already, there is a great
deal of restlessness among the large number of minorities in the
republic, unsure of what their status would be in an independent
Bosnia. War appears in the offing here. The West still seems unsure
about Yugoslavia's status, with roughly 25 of the roughly 170 nations
in the world recognizing Croatia and Slovenia, no one specifically
recognizing Macedonia (maybe Bulgaria), and almost no one saying what
they'll do about Bosnia-Hercegovina if the vote is overwhemingly
pro-independence. (36)
3-MAR-1992 00:43:07.00
Bosnia-Hercegovina-
Barricades went up in Sarejevo, reportedly placed by Serbians
disgruntled over the independence vote this weekend. Last reports
were that the barricades had been removed again, though widespread
reports have that some violence HAS occurred through the day, and
that more is expected after the voting results are released tomorrow.
Just what the region needs, another conflict! (37)
4-MAR-1992 00:05:09.41
Bosnia-Hercegovina-
The barricades raised yesterday by Serbs opposed to the weekend's
independence vote came down this morning, but not until a couple of
shooting incidents had occurred, and the barricading had spread to
outside of Sarejevo, Bosnia's capital and the site of the long ago
June assassination that initiated many of the conflicts that have
happened in Europe since. Had Princip missed, Serbia might have
survived, as might have the Kingdom of Montenegro, as separate
entities. Yugoslavia, as we have known it, might not have existed.
Bosnia-Hercegovina is one of the more ethnically mixed of the former
Yugoslav republics, and one of the more divided. 
The Serbs of Bosnia favor staying in the old "union," while the
Croats, Muslims and other minorities oppose that in favor of a
sovereign state. At last report, 65% of the electorate of
Bosnia-Hercegovina favors independence. The big question for many is
will the EC recognize them as it has Croatia and Slovenia?
Croatia-
Though cost "bugs" still need working out, the first of the UN
peacekeeping forces are due to arrive next week.  (38)
4-MAR-1992 17:46:24.10
Bosnia-Hercegovina-
It has been reported that 65% of those voting this past weekend favor
independence, but that is only with the 2/3 Croats and Muslims
voting. The 1/3 of the republic who are Serbs boycotted the vote, and
for two nights running have put up barricades within Sarejevo. The
state radio urged people last night "not to listen to rumors, or to
carry guns." Cyrus Vance, arriving in "Yugoslavia" today, stated that
the sporadic violence in Bosnia will "not inhibit the introduction of
units of the UN peacekeeping forces to the area." So far, 10 people
have been killed in Bosnia-Hercegovina over the independence drive.
Croatia-
NPR reported today that 700,000 people have been "displaced" since
the beginning of the fighting last June. 50,000 are reported to have
fled into Hungary. (39)
9-MAR-1992 22:35:44.04
Serbia-
"Tens of thousands" of reported Serbian "nationalists" or a crowd of
10-30,000, considerably smaller than the million expected,
demonstrated in Belgrade today, calling for the resignation of
President Slobodan Milosevic, claiming that his "communistic
actions" in the dealing with the secession of four Yugoslav republics
has brought Serbia to the state of isolation by the world community.
The chief "leader of the opposition," Vuk Druskovic, called for a
general strike in hopes of forcing a Milosevic resignation. The
protesters allegedly carried pictures of Prince Alexander, pretender
to the old Yugoslavian throne, chanting, " We want the King, not the
Communists."
                                              
The war in Azerbaijan, the enormous economic problems of Russia and
other "CIS states, "and the difficulties in ex-Yugoslavia should
make it imminently clear that not always is change a pleasant or
positive phenomenon. This spring and summer will probably bring to
our knowledge many unpleasant and tragic events. Hopefully,
constructive solutions can be found. (40)
11-MAR-1992 00:35:40.87
Bosnia-
Fighting has occurred here, is occurring here, and is intensifying as
the first UN troops arrive "in-country." A cargo train here was
attacked by gunfire, and its operator severely wounded.
Croatia-
Shelling is "occurring along the Adriatic coast and in Slovonia by
the Serbian-led army," while the US indicated today that it will
recognize Croatia and Slovenia "soon," and after consulting with the
EC, will announce a timetable for recognition of all four of the
breakaway republics.  
Azerbaijan and Moldava remain the trouble spots within the XUSSR,
Bosnia-Hercegovina and Croatia on the east European side of the
"trouble" equation. Civil war may yet be fought in earnest on either
side of the scale. (41)
15-MAR-1992 00:10:43.06
Bosnia-Hercegovina-
Three policeman were killed here 13 March, as the commander of the UN
forces General Navier (French?  - they reportedly have the largest
contingent of troops in the 14,000 man UN peacekeeping forces to be
deployed primarily in Croatia) arrived in Sarejevo. (42)
 
17-MAR-1992 01:54:09.41
Croatia -
Fighting here has picked up again. The first 350 troops have arrived,
including first time ever Russian/Ukranian troop participation in a
UN peace keeping force.
The situation in eastern Europe and the "CIS" appears very fluid, and
does not look to be improving in the near future. The dead do not
care who is right, they will remain dead none the less. The pain  the
"CIS state's" and the fragments of "old" Yugoslavia's arrivals into
the modern world reverberates all over the planet. Can the hatreds be
transcended?  (43)
19-MAR-1992 18:07:57.54
Bosnia-Hercegovina-
Vague agreement has reportedly been reached to divide the republic
into ethnic "zones" within the republic, though at least some
Serbians within and outside Bosnia-Hercegovina do not agree with the
plan.  Iam not sure what to think about this latest "plan" about
Bosnia-Hercegovina, but if the plan CAN be accepted by all factions,
then more power to them - it would be great to see a reasonable
solution to that situation, though rather unbelievable.  (44)
25-MAR-1992 01:05:07.51
Croatia-
The UN pauses, hesitating, as the fighting breaks out anew here,
allegedly for "in place" advantage when the UN peacekeepers come and
the various rebel groups "have to" disarm. So far, only a token
advance force of "Blue Berets" has arrived. 
Bosnia-
Reportedly (NPR's "All Things Considered" offered this), the EC will
recognize Bosnia as a nation next month.  
The potential for a renewal of the ex-Yugoslav nation's "civil war"
appears very high.  
Croatia AND Bosnia-
Heavy fighting has been reported from this area along the border of
the two republics. It would appear that the Vance truce is
collapsing.   (45)
4-APR-1992 10:00:07.80
Bosnia/Croatia-
Twenty to fifty people were reported killed in sharp fighting in four
Bosnian towns and in various spots in Croatia between "Muslim
militia" and the "Yugoslav" army. I'm not sure what either of these
groups really are - the latter is mostly Serbian, as I believe
Yugoslavia to be dead, and the former could be anyone of a number of
nationalities. The "President" of Bosnia (as yet unrecognized by
almost all the nations of the world) called on the UN to rapidly
deploy military observers. Osijek in Croatia, already severely
damaged in the earlier fighting, was shelled again yesterday, with
casualty reports varying on the number killed.
Croatia/Bosnia again threaten to plunge the region into war, not a
very encouraging end to the week.  (46)
7-APR-1992 00:47:46.51
Bosnia-Hercegovina
The place is full of sad and strange events. 5 people were killed
during a peace march "of thousands" in Sarejevo today, by alleged
Serbian snipers in a hotel looking over the line of marchers. 6
Serbians were arrested for the murders. The EC recognized Bosnia as a
sovereign state today, but still no European power, the CSCE or the
UN  is willing to give "Yugoslavia" the boot, though it is clear that
such an entity is for intents and purposes a "dead letter." A state
of emergency has been declared, a curfew imposed, a ex-Communist
"government of national unity" has allegedly been formed, while
"dozens" have been killed in the past three to four days of clashes
in this republic, many from the artillery and mortar shelling in
Sarejevo proper by the "Yugoslav" army.
Bosnia-Hercegovina stands poised for all-out civil war, aided and
abetted by the domination-minded, Serbian-dominated military of
Belgrade. Things are not getting better in this part of the world,
and probably will continue escalating into stupidity of the many
kinds as spring waxes on. (47)
7-APR-1992 23:11:33.56
Bosnia-Hercegovina-
This state, and Croatia and Slovenia (but not Macedonia, I wonder
why!), were recognized today by the United States as independent
states after EC recognition yesterday.
Fighting continued here, and in Croatia, with the Bosnian "President"
protesting to the Yugoslav army chief over an air attack in southwest
Bosnia that reportedly killed seven. Mortar fire was occurring in
Sarejevo.
It would appear that the Serbs cannot accept certain realities, but
are demanding from Bosnia that a separate Serbian area in Bosnia be
created, and a similar demand is being placed on the government of
Croatia. (48)
9-APR-1992 23:05:48.90
Comments -
  
The fighting in Bosnia has tragically escalated, with the
"Yugoslavian army" now (to my way of thinking) criminally occupying
and attacking a sovereign state without boo being said by the vaunted
"protectors of democracy"; the US, the EC, and the UN. Bosnia's joint
Presidency declared a state of emergency today, and they AND the
European Parliament asked the UN to extend the peacekeeping
committment to Bosnia along with Croatia.
 
One entertains the thought that the "coalition" in the UN that went
to bat for the sovereignty of Kuwait over the "illegal and criminal
invasion" of Kuwait by Iraq ought to do the same against the Belgrade
regime for their criminal and illegal attacks against the sovereign,
and recognized as such by a chunk of the major powers in the world,
states of Bosnia-Hercegovina and Croatia. The circumstances are
roughly the same, with Serbia making the same claims about Croatia
and Bosnia that Iraq made about Kuwait. This was also the "principle"
cited when the US attacked Panama, and went after the head of
government there for allying himself with "criminals" to the
detriment of Panamanians and Americans living there. Am I being too
broad in my condemnation of the West's seeming indifference?
Principle is principle, if we are willing to war against Arabs for
wrongnesses, it seems that the Balkans are no different if the
circumstances are the same, or roughly so.
 
The "new world order" seems much more willing to attack places where
the risk of serious entanglement is much lower, rather than to defend
a stated belief across the board, no matter who the offender. Croatia
and Bosnia-Hercegovina are being launched as nations under the
crummiest of conditions, and with scarcely a voice raised to do much
more than say "we recognize that you DO exist." Big deal, if the
Serbian-dominated "Yugoslav army" (which I'm inclined to call the
Serbo-Montenegran army at this juncture) is allowed to crush these
fledgling states without any effort by the self-annointed "protectors
of democracy" to do SOMETHING about it!
 
Tragic times, confusing times, rapidly changing times, but not
boring, and not easy to fathom either. (49)
13-APR-1992 00:17:05.17
Bosnia-
This writer heard one of the most racist things stated up to now
relating to this conflict on Saturday - that the Serbians were
creating an ethnically "clean" area (devoid of Bosnians AND Muslims)
along the Bosnian/Serbian border IN BOSNIAN TERRITORY, and sending
"tens of thousands" into refugee status to further such a racist
policy. It is VERY hard to have much sympathy for the Serbs when this
kind of report floats across the news outlets, because the policy
would seem to really care only for the Serbian "Communist" position,
and damn anyone who gets in their way, to the point of death and/or 
dislodgement from homes held for generations. What is equally
shocking is the muteness of the so-called "democracies," will to
cluck about Peru, smash Iraq and kill thousands to prop an
anti-democratic regime in Kuwait in the name of democracy, but ignore
attempts (save by hollow recognitions) of Bosnia-Hercegovina,
Macedonia, Croatia and Slovenia to achieve democratic nationhood (Our
refusal to recognize Macedonia appears to revolve around our "ally"
Greece's objections to Macedonia using THAT NAME, as if the Greeks
held a world copyright on the use of the name - and the world is
going along with this ridiculous notion!
It is difficult to stomach some of the things one sees in the world.
I know individual Serbs are not bad people, no more than any other
group in the region. But, the Serbian-led "Yugoslav" army, and the
actions of "Serbian militias" in Croatia and Bosnia-Hercegovina
border on war crimes or a "war of aggression" at the least. The
apathy and silence of the UN and the so-called "free nations" of the
West amounts to moral lassitude of the worst kind. I'm not of any of
these groups, but I empathize most with the uprooted families in
Bosnia and Croatia, who are losing everything as Serbia furthers what
would appear to be racist goals that no one is calling them on. Might
and murder should not make right, nor should ANY side be forgiven for
promoting ethnic hatred and racism. Thast appears to be what's
happening here, the world loses every minute it continues without
efforts more overt than at present to stop it.  (50)
15-APR-1992 22:54:36.42
CSCE-
There is now talk in the CSCE of giving Bosnia full state membership
in this organization, and suspending or expelling Serbia. Serbia's
"continued aggression" against Bosnia-Hercegovina (especially in
Croatia, and in Croatian Hercegovina) is the reason given for this
possible scenario. 
Bosnia-Hercegovina-
The US, finally, warned Serbia today that they are in serious danger
of complete European "isolation" if they continue on their current
course. Yet, this rhetoric was immediately undermined by the US' UN
envoy in Belgrade, Cyrus Vance, who stated that there are no plans
(primarily because of a lack of money!) to put peacekeepers into
Bosnia, despite the fact that the peacekeepers are headquartered IN
BOSNIA! Our State Department did warn today that the situation in
this newly recognized sovereign nation was "very, very serious." One
has to wonder if that is all that will emanate from the US and UN
about this grave, and overt, set of aggressions against a sovereign
nation.
It would appear that the turbulence in ex-Yugoslavia will be allowed
to continue, with no action by the UN against a seeming aggressor,
Serbia, while we attempt to buy off the "CIS states" from civil war
by giving them money, eventually. Strange world! (51)
17-APR-1992 16:15:08.24
Bosnia-
Cyrus Vance, the UN envoy either in Belgrade or in Sarejevo, (not
sure where he is today) has reportedly signed onto an idea of
dividing Bosnia in three parts, for Croatians, Serbians and
"Muslims." (cannot quite figure out what ethnic group this latter
bunch is!), while quite publicly condemning the "Yugoslav" army's
ongoing violence within Bosnia. I heard earlier yesterday that
"several hundred people" have already been killed in the Bosnian
fighting just since the independence declaration of 29 February.
Places like Bosnia-Hercegovina, Croatia and Serbia may well bne
flashpoints for regional war if the "new world order" folks don't get
off their duffs and take some assertive actions to influence how all
this goes. This writer is not in favor of a uni-polar world, but it
is sure is distressing to see so little action emanating from all the
dramatic changes that have occurred since the Berlin Wall came down
in November, 1989. The big fragment, the small fight. The times are
not dull, but an awful lot of people are negatively effected by what
IS happening. Perhaps "tomorrow" will be better, for "today" is
rather turbulent. (52)
22-APR-1992 01:37:31.21
Bosnia-
Fighting has intensified in Sarejevo, with the Bosnian President
accusing Serbia (rightfully, I believe) of trying to swallow the new
country. Milosevic of Serbia denies "Yugoslav" army participation in
the fighting, other Serbs say it is "militias" doing the dirty work.
Well, militias do not normally use, or have as equipment, what has
been reported as "warplanes." They are coming from "Yugoslavia," no
matter what Milosevic says. Six were reported killed in today's
fighting. Yesterday, a fellow from the New York Times reported on NPR
that the Serbian takeover goal of Bosnian territory is 70%.
The TV station in Sarejevo is burning, the police station under
attack by machine-guns, mortar and sniper fire is rising in
intensity daily.
It would appear that the new countries emerging from the dead carcass
of Yugoslavia WILL eventually achieve their goal, but only after a lot
of blood is spilled. (53)
23-APR-1992 01:56:28.44
Bosnia-
The fighting in Sarejevo has intensified. Serbian President
Milosevic's claim yesterday that Serbia is not involved in the
attacks on Bosnian towns and the Bosnian capital is belied by the
appearance of "Yugoslav warplanes" over several Bosnian cities in the
Hercegovina region. The "para-militaries" are clearly under the
command of Belgrade, as they are trying to create a "Serbian line"
that devours 70% of Bosnia, and to the world, no shame, no apology,
just further seizure of Bosnian and Croatian lands. All the reports
in the Western media make it seem that most of the attacking is being
done by one kind of Serbian force or another, call them what you may.
Mortars and machine guns being shot in the capital city of a newly
recognized country, yet no one will say out loud that these actions
constitute illegal aggressions under the UN Charter, and brand Serbia
in the same way the "world" went after Saddam Hussein. It is sad to
see such hypocracy. I do not have an anti-Serbian bias - I have a
bias against aggression being allowed as a "legitimate means" of
securing one's foreign policy goals. What is happening, it seems, is
a de facto acceptance of Serbian violence to achieve "Communist
expanionism." Milosevic and company are inheritors of the
"communist" tradition in terms of power in Belgrade. What can come
from not denouncing them, and more actively opposing the expansionist
killing being done by "masked" Serbian forces?
The US today warned that "Yugoslavia" had a week to cease and desist
from their "invasion" of Bosnia-Hercegovina, or sanctions would be
applied. That's not good enough. A large UN force has to be put in
place, and cause a rollback of Serbian advances to the borders of 29
February (Vance ruled this out due to lack of money - the money HAS
to be found!). Expansionism at the point of a gun accompanied by
murder has no business being rewarded by being allowed to keep what
they have "stolen" of their neighbor's territory. "Yugoslavia" is
dead, was dead the day Croatia and Slovenia declared independence, is
VERY dead now, despite Western reluctance to recognize Macedonia
because of Greek objections, and despite the fact that Slovenia,
which has few Serbs in their space, has NOT been attacked while
Bosnia and Croatia have been.  
15 are known dead on the "Serbian side" of the Bosnian fighting, it
is not known what the death count is on the Bosnia-Hercegovina side.
Several Bosnian cities have been attacked by air, and there IS close
fighting in Sarejevo. 
This situation is a tragedy; for Europe, for ex-Yugoslavia and
its constituent parts, for the newly emerging "CIS states." It serves
as an example of how NOT to solve one's problems in Europe, or
anywhere else, for that matter. But, the tragedy spins on, so far
unobstructed by reason.  (54)
25-APR-1992 09:43:01.37
Bosnia-
Fighting continues here, despite the presence of two EC officials
(the Portugese Foreign Minister and Lord Carrington) stating flatly
to the Serbs primarily (but also to the Bosnian Muslims and Croats)
that the fighting has to stop. Butrous Butrous-Gahli, the UN
Secretary General, warned yesterday that NO peacekeeping forces would
go to Croatia until the fighting stopped, and refused to extend the
UN "mandate" to cover Bosnia. 
But the fighting in Sarejevo and surrounding areas continues, with at
least one sharp defeat of Serbs by Croatians yesterday, and the
alleged shooting down of five "Yugoslav warplanes," plus continued
fighting in the Hercegovina region and in Croatia. The UN Security
Council met yesterday afternoon over Bosnia, but reached no
conclusive results, despite a specific call by France, Germany and
Poland to the Security Council for UN "intervention" in the struggle.
Boutrous-Gahli's "go-slow approach" had the backing of the US, so no
troops will go to Bosnia in the near term. Late yesterday, NPR
reported that the Serbian Parliament rejected the notion that the
"Yugoslav army" was the aggressor in the conflict, and announced that
a merged Serbia and Montenegro would form the "Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia."
The fighting in Bosnia/Croatia threatens the peace of all of Europe,
another fiery beacon of a turbulent period, as the map of Europe
continues to remain in a state of flux. (55)
29-APR-1992 19:08:38.31
Bosnia-
The fighting continues, with the "Yugoslav army" charged by most
observers as the continued "aggrssor." The acting "Yugoslav" Defense
Minister warned that that the troops that are in Bosnia will NOT be
removed, despite threats vis CSCE, the UN and the EC that severe
sanctions will be applied to Serbia/Montenegro if their aggressions
against Croatia and Bosnia do not cease. Mostar (?) is reported "near
destroyed" by "Yugoslav" shelling, 5 other towns "destroyed" by
mortar and grenade fire, and some reporters believe that Sarejevo
could be "in ruins" in two weeks. 
NPR reports 500 roadblocks have been set up by "Yugoslav" forces
around Bosnia, that 5 southern predominantly Muslim Bosnian towns
have been d